Predict Life In The Future Essay Text

Jonathan Friesen - Writing Coach

We travel in one direction through time from the past, through the present, toward the future. conventional wisdom is wrong. it turns out we can predict the future it’s only a question of to what degree. In fact, by the end of this article, you’ll make a prediction about your own future and if you read this article carefully, it will come true. To accurately predict the future, only two things are required:

    accurate information.
the reason it’s so hard to predict the future is that a we rarely understand all the details involved, and b too many unexpected things can affect our prediction. The good news is this: both of those can be improved we can a gather more details and b anticipate the unexpected.

A prediction is a statement of expectation that something will happen in the future. Here are four basic types of predictions:

    the safe prediction. a safe prediction is one that has very little chance of being wrong usually because the event being predicted has happened before, or because no reasonable variables can impact the prediction. the trend prediction. here, the prediction focuses on the momentum of the thing being predicted. The person making the prediction assumes they're reading the information and trends correctly.

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    the basic prediction. this kind of prediction focuses on a detailed event or situation. It says this thing will happen in the future, but it does not attempt to predict when it will happen. the pinpoint prediction. this is what we think of when we talk about predicting the future. To be accurate, it requires total control or prediction of all possible variables. This kind of prediction is the most complex because it requires the greatest precision, it is the most difficult to make correctly. Example: on may 12th john will have the winning six numbers of the california state lottery.

the further down this list you go, the more information you need, and the more the variables that can get in your way.

You need only general information, and it doesn't have any significant variables. A pinpoint prediction, on the other hand, takes a lot of thought detailed information and variables that need to be weighed up very carefully. As any good meteorologist will tell you, weather trends in places where the weather actually changes are easy to predict in the short term , but difficult if not impossible to predict with pinpoint accuracy more than a day in the future. There’s so much rain building up the air pressure systems are so large that anybody can see it coming and no variable can stop it.

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But predicting small bursts of rain on a partly cloudy day is much more difficult. Will the clouds fill enough to actually drop rain? or will they get close. But not quite reach the tipping point? in this case, the weatherman is helpless because: there are too many variables. he could predict it accurately. If he could track and map every atmospheric particle, and watch how each one affects the particle next to it, and see their relationships on a micro scale.

He'd see how they interact, how they are affected by the geography, and how they collate into larger storm systems. As of this writing, that degree of detail needs a lot more computing power than we have today. it will be possible to predict the weather. we just need significantly advanced technology. As a sidenote: did you know that a 50% chance of rain simply means 50% of the time we've had a weather pattern like this in the past, it has rained ? talk about a safe prediction. Have you ever noticed how bad old sci fi looks? take a show like star trek for example.

Remember the doors? on the original series i saw reruns , which was set a couple hundred years into the future. But by today’s eyes only a couple decades a fraction of the future later , it looks ridiculous. How could such creative people be so wrong? because the prediction was made with 1960s information. The creative team imagined the future but they were missing vast amounts of interim progress. In the years since the 1960s, we’ve seen technology that far surpasses what they imagined. In short, the they didn't anticipate all the variables involved. they couldn't. And because their story was set significantly in the future, the variables compounded.

the future will be influenced by inventions and information that have not even been imagined yet. So the further into our future we attempt to predict, the greater the chance we’ll be wrong. star trek and the weatherman provide good examples of why predicting the future is so difficult. In a nutshell: variables we can't see can throw our predictions off course. making more than a trend prediction about anything 200 years from now or even 20 years from now, for that matter is impossible. things we cannot even imagine today. just think of how radically the internet has changed the way our world works. The internet could not even be imagined by the star trek creators. And a technology even more revolutionary than the internet might be lurking just around the corner perhaps as early as 17 years from now.

And that has a deeply profound implication which you need to understand before you can start predicting the future: all predictions of the long term future are wrong. it's simply impossible to predict, because we don't know what we don't yet know, so we can't adjust our prediction for it. That means that anyone who tells you the world is going to end, or the earth is going to blow up, or melt, or get overpopulated, or run out of food. They're making predictions without factoring in all the variables. what we can do, though and what i suggest we get good at is make short term predictions whose variables we can control.

What is the one element of your life you can most accurately predict? you. your future. You have access to just about all the information of your life, and because you’re the one living your own experience, you’re in a unique position to control the variables of your life. And if you’re completely honest with yourself and start looking at your life from the widest possible vantage point, you will be able to anticipate the variables that could otherwise broadside you.

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