Global Warming Is Inevitable-Essay Text

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Sea level rise to outpace temperature increase march 17, 2005 bouldereven if all greenhouse gases had been stabilized in the year 20, we would still be committed to a warmer earth and greater sea level rise in the present century, according to a new study by a team of climate modelers at the national center for atmospheric research ncar. The modeling study quantifies the relative rates of sea level rise and global temperature increase that we are already committed to in the 21st century. Even if atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases leveled off, globally averaged surface air temperatures would rise about a half degree celsius one degree fahrenheit and global sea levels would rise another 11 centimeters 4 inches from thermal expansion alone by 2100. Ldquo many people don rsquo t realize we are committed right now to a significant amount of global warming and sea level rise because of the greenhouse gases we have already put into the atmosphere, rdquo says lead author gerald meehl.

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Ldquo even if we stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate will continue to warm, and there will be proportionately even more sea level rise. Rdquo coastal population centers at low elevations like new orleans, key west, and other spots around the world, are vulnerable to sea level rise. Florida's key west floods routinely in springtime when tides pulled higher by the new or full moon reach 1.7 feet above mean sea level. Photo courtesy national weather service forecast office, key west noaa photo library.

The half degree temperature rise is similar to that observed at the end of the 20th century, but the projected sea level rise is more than twice the 3 inch 5 centimeter rise that occurred during the latter half of the previous century. These numbers do not take into account fresh water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, which could at least double the sea level rise caused by thermal expansion alone. The north atlantic thermohaline circulation, which currently warms europe by transporting heat from the tropics, weakens in the models. Even so, europe heats up with the rest of the planet because of the overwhelming effect of greenhouse gases. Though temperature rise shows signs of leveling off 100 years after stabilization in the study, ocean waters continue to warm and expand, causing global sea level to rise unabated. The paper concludes with a cogent statement by meehl: with the ongoing increase in concentrations of ghgs greenhouse gases , every day we commit to more climate change in the future. When and how we stabilize concentrations will dictate, on the time scale of a century or so, how much more warming we will experience.

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But we are already committed to ongoing large sea level rise, even if concentrations of ghgs could be stabilized. The inevitability of the climate changes described in the study is the result of thermal inertia, mainly from the oceans, and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Thermal inertia refers to the process by which water heats and cools more slowly than air because it is denser than air. The new study is the first to quantify future committed climate change using coupled global three dimensional climate models. Coupled models link major components of earth's climate in ways that allow them to interact with each other. Meehl and his ncar colleagues ran the same scenario a number of times and averaged the results to create ensemble simulations from each of two global climate models. The scientists also compared possible climate scenarios in the two models during the 21st century in which greenhouse gases continue to build in the atmosphere at low, moderate, or high rates.

The worst case scenario projects an average temperature rise of 3.5 c 6.3 f and sea level rise from thermal expansion of 30 centimeters 12 inches by 2100. All scenarios analyzed in the study will be assessed by international teams of scientists for the next report by the intergovernmental panel on climate change, due out in 2007. The ncar team used the parallel climate model pcm , developed by ncar and the department of energy, and the new community climate system model version 3.

The ccsm3 was developed at ncar with input from university and federal climate scientists around the country and principal funding from the national science foundation ncar rsquo s primary sponsor and the department of energy. The ccsm3 shows slightly higher temperature rise and sea level rise from thermal expansion and greater weakening of the thermohaline circulation in the north atlantic. The models were run on supercomputers at ncar and several doe labs and on the earth simulator in japan. The climate change commitment, by ncar scientist tom wigley, calculates a continued rise in temperatures and sea level out to the year 2400, using a different computer model. The national center for atmospheric research and ucar office of programs are operated by ucar under the sponsorship of the national science foundation and other agencies. Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any of ucar's sponsors.

Full story an ohio state university statistician says that the natural human difficulty with grasping probabilities is preventing americans from dealing with climate change. In a panel discussion at the american association for the advancement of science meeting on feb. 15, mark berliner said that an aversion to statistical thinking and probability is a significant reason that we haven't enacted strategies to deal with climate change right now. Berliner, professor and chair of statistics at ohio state, is the former co chair of the american statistical association's advisory committee on climate change policy, and as such, he spent two years talking with u.s. As a result, he's come to the conclusion that americans need to understand that climate change is a range of possible events that are more or less likely. However, the negative impacts of climate change can be reduced by taking some moderate actions today, he said.

The general public has an understanding of tipping points, the moment beyond which things become inevitable. But as soon as you start thinking of climate change as inevitable, it's easy to throw up your hands and say, 'it's too late, so why bother to do anything?' berliner said. It's like a two pack a day smoker deciding not to cut back on the cigarettes, because he's as good as gone. Instead of taking an extreme all or nothing view about climate change, we can think of it as a spectrum of possible problems, and look for a spectrum of practical solutions that will do the most good, he said. From his own career in climate research, berliner sees climate change as a collection of possible events: some extreme disasters that are unlikely to happen, but still possible and less extreme events that are much more likely. It's the difference, he said, between the low possibility that a coastal town will flood permanently, versus the high possibility that high tides and periodic floods will force the town to close its beaches for more days during the year a loss to valuable tourism.

It's human nature to abhor uncertainty, he said, and climate research, like all research, is full of uncertainty. He hopes that opinion leaders will help the public understand the nature of science, and the idea that uncertainties diminish as data accumulates. There will never be a single right answer to the question what will happen to earth's climate? one of the criticisms of climate change research is that different computer models give different answers, berliner said. But the key is not to pick the right climate model, but to pick the right elements out of each of the models. As he calculates the effectiveness of potential climate change mitigation strategies, berliner has determined one thing for sure.

Compromise if it leads to doing something is better than doing nothing, he said. Below is an essay on globalization is inevitable from anti essays, your source for research papers, essays, and term paper examples. Firstly, the globalization enables us to get more variety, better quality, or lower prices. For example, our cars, like a kia sorento equipped with a cd player, cost less than if all the parts were made and the labor performed in one place. There are many difference opinions on the future of international business and globalization. Basically, there are three major viewpoints: further globalization is inevitable. The view is inevitable reflects the premise that advance in transportation and communications are so pervasive that consumers every where will demand the best products for the best prices regardless of their origins.

Those who hold this view also argue that because mnes have so many international production and distribution networks in place, they will pressure home governments to place fewer rather than more restrictions on the international movement of goods and the means of producing them. But the future is that what we make of it, we must figure out how to spread the benefits of globalization equitably while minimizing the hardships place on their parties – both people and companies – who suffer from increased international competition. International business will grow primarily along regional rather than global lines.

The second view is based on studies showing that almost all of the companies we think of as global conduct most their business in nearby countries and then expand their. Illustration: stephen doyle in the waning weeks of 2009, planeloads of scientists, politicians, and assorted climate wonks from 192 countries will blow through a few million tons of co 2 to jet to copenhagen, one of the worlds most carbon conscious cities. The occasion is the much awaited united nations climate change conference, aka kyoto 2. As many of the participants mdash certainly the scientists mdash are only too aware, the global war on carbon has not gone well for the atmosphere.

C0 2 thats already in the air or in the pipeline will stoke irreversible warming for the next 1,0 years. Any scheme cobbled together in copenhagen for slowing mdash forget reversing mdash the growth of greenhouse gases will be way too little, way too late. James lovelock, the british chemist who redubbed mother earth as gaia, tells the ungilded truth: can we hit a carbon undo button? not a hope in hell. Because by one of those strokes of luck that seem to follow the most charmed species on earth, climate change arrives just at the moment when we have mdash or have in sight mdash an array of tools for adapting and extending human civilization to any and every environment.

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